Policy Briefs
The Institute for Research Analysis and Dialogue policy briefs deliver evidence-based insights and recomendations on critical issues affecting the state and the nation, supporting informed decision-making.
Security is fundamental to sustainable peace and development, serving as the foundation for progress in governance, reconciliation, justice, and service delivery. In alignment with our commitment to peacebuilding and our goal of delivering high-quality technical analysis on strategic domains such as security, IRAD partnered with Warteelka Arlaadi to host an X Space discussion on Somalia’s national security dynamics on September 14, 2024. This event convened senior security experts and analysts to explore critical topics, including federal security arrangements, the ATMIS drawdown, regional security challenges, and the trust deficit between federal and regional administrations.
The dialogue was informed by extensive preparatory work, including high-profile interviews, observations during the Somali Prime Minister’s visit to Baidoa, consultations with various sectors of Southwest State society, desk review data analysis, and comprehensive literature reviews. Building on these efforts, IRAD published this in-depth article analyzing Somalia’s national security dynamics through the lens of Southwest State. The publication aims to support evidence-based decision-making and advance the shared goal of fostering peace, unity, and stability in Somalia.
This research underscores the understanding that addressing security is not merely a technical challenge but a foundational step toward building a resilient and inclusive future for all Somalis.
Download the full paper here to explore more insights and analysis
The economic landscape of the Southwest State is anchored in agriculture, benefiting from fertile lands and marine and natural resources. However, economic development is severely constrained by recurring droughts, security threats, and a lack of infrastructure. These factors not only impede agricultural productivity but also limit access to markets and discourage investment. Thus, the state’s economy remains largely informal, relying heavily on traditional farming practices, which while sustaining a large portion of the population, offers limited growth or innovation.
On the other hand, climate change significantly affects the Southwest State, with increased droughts and floods damaging agricultural productivity and exacerbating food security. This environmental instability not only heightens community tensions but also leads to resource-based conflicts, displacement, and economic instability. These challenges demand urgent attention to mitigate their impact on the state’s development and stability.
Socially, the state is deeply influenced by a complex clan-based structure, which affects governance and community interactions, often leading to interclan conflicts. The challenge is compounded by the presence of a large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), which strains local resources and complicates social cohesion. Politically, the state is navigating a path towards democratic governance with international support, yet clan politics and insurgent activities by Al-Shabaab make the political environment particularly volatile.
To harness the state’s potential and address its myriad challenges, the policy paper recommends several strategic investments and comprehensive policy implementations. These include developing infrastructure, improving market access, promoting agricultural diversification, leveraging economic opportunities beyond agriculture, fostering job creation, enhancing social services, and increasing international cooperation. By focusing on these areas, Southwest State can promote stability and sustainable economic growth, contributing significantly to Somalia’s broader development goals.
Maamulka Koonfur Galbeed ee Soomaaliya ayaa sannadkii 2014-kii ka mid noqday shanta dowlad goboleed ee xubnaha ka ah Dawladda Federaalka ah ee Soomaaliya, kaddib markii la ansixiyay dastuurka KMG ah ee Federaalka sannadkii 2012, iyadoo caasimaddiisa rasmiga ah ay tahay Baraawe, balse uu maamulku si kumeel gaar ah ugu shaqeeyo magaalada Baydhawa. Tan iyo markii la unkay Dowlad Goboleedka Koonfur Galbeed ayaa waxaa ay wajahaysaa dhibaatooyin dhowr ah; oo caqabad ku ah xoojinta dowlad dhiska deegaanka. Dhibaatooyinkaan waxaa ka mid ah dhaqaale xumo, xasilooni dari joogto ah oo siyaasadeed, muranno la xiriira habraaca doorasho, dhibaatooyin guud ee amni xumo ee iyo kuwo kooxaha xagjirka ah ay abuureen. Intaa waxaa sii dheer dhibaatooyin hor leh oo ka dhashay diiramaadka dunnida oo keenay isbedel cimilo taas oo saamayn wayn ku haaya degaanno tiro badan oo Koonfur Galbeed ka tirsan.
Arrimahan waxay caqabad joogto ah ku noqdeen dadaallada xoojinta maamul dowladeed iyo daadajinta maamul wanaagga, xoojinta sugidda amniga, iyo sare-u-qaadidda bixinta adeegyada aasaasiga ah.
Falanqeyntan ayaa, sidaas darteed, lagu eegayaa waxyaabaha salka ku haya colaadaha kasoo cusboonaaday qeybo ka mid ah deegaanada maamulka balse waxaa diirada lagu saaraya degmada Diinsoor oo ah ubucda isku dhacyadii ugu danbeeyay. Natiijooyinka ka soo baxay falanqayntani, waxay u ololaynaysaa habab dhinacyo badan leh oo lagu xallinayo khilaafka. Waxa ay xoogga saaraysaa sida ay lagama maarmaanka u tahay in la qaato hababka xallinta mashaakilka oo bulshada ka yimid, dib-u-habaynta garsoorka si kor loogu qaado isla-xisaabtanka, iyo in la xoojiyo awoodda hay’adaha dawladda si ay si firfircoon uga hadlaan sababaha khilaafka.
Hadaba, Machadka Cilmibaarista, Daraasaadka iyo Doodaha ee (IRAD) ayaa isku dayaya in uu daaraso ku sameeyo arrimahaaan is-biirsaday oo caqabadda ah si loo fahmo ubucda dhibaatooyinkaan, wuxuuna soo jeedinayaa in arrimaha lagu wajaho xoojinta kaalinta bulshada ka mid noqoshada talada degaankooda iyo kordhinta fahamkooda in xalka uu iyaga ku jiro.
Si aad uga bogato warbixinta oo dhamaystiran, fadlan guji halka hoose
Formally established as one of the Federal Member States (FMS) in Somalia in 2014, the Southwest State of Somalia has since been facing multifaceted state-building challenges, including persistent political instability, electoral process disputes, economic hardships, insecurity, governance and decentralization hurdles, and conflicts among clans over power struggles and resource allocation, which frequently lead to violent confrontations, impeding state development.
In 2023 and 2024, several areas within the state witnessed clashes among inhabitants and clans, resulting in armed conflicts and losses. Additionally, the state faces recurring natural disasters such as droughts and floods, exacerbated by climate change. Access barriers between districts, due to the widespread presence and control of most parts of the state by al-Shabaab, further complicate governance and development efforts, as well as the state’s ability to deliver necessary services.
Thus, the IRAD Institute conducts a series of studies to examine and analyze the underlying causes of these multifaceted challenges and conflicts in the state. The first of these studies addresses the conflicts that erupted in Diinsoor from August 2023. The study revealed that similar patterns and motives underlie all reported conflicts in the state, albeit with different actors involved, necessitating urgent attention. The paper recommends promoting community-led initiatives for reconciliation and conflict resolution by maintaining and sustaining an effective district formation process.